Sorry about the posting hiatus but I promise I have some good excuses:

• Travari is getting closer and closer to being ready to launch (although we’re nearly a month behind schedule!)  Keeping my eye on all the moving parts has kept me a little distracted from the blog but I’ve learned some real lessons in project management.
• Great holiday ski trip to Utah and Idaho.  I spent a few days touring the backcountry and visiting family.  I was able to get some work done from the mobile office but participating in adventure travel seemed a lot more exciting than blogging about adventure travel.  Here are couple of pictures of me not blogging:

Bluebird powder day. Not a track in sight.

N. Utah scenery

With my excuses out of the way here is some actual content.

I’ve been inspired by a couple of really interesting posts offering predictions for what will happen in the travel industry in 2009.  I know I’m about 8 days late but here are my predictions for the adventure travel industry.

• Adventure travel will be hurt less than traditional travel. Intrepid Travel even reports increased bookings during recessions.  I think the main driver of this trend is that laid off professionals suddenly find themselves with spare time to pursue their dream trips.  Companies like Intrepid or G.A.P. offer interesting trips that aren’t overtly luxurious.  Adventure travel numbers will be down overall but not as much as the rest of the travel industry.
• Tough times will force tour operators to develop more efficient and sophisticated strategies. Many adventure travel businesses have lagged behind mainstream travel in terms of adopting new ideas.  This includes better yield management, better websites and more efficient marketing strategies.  Companies that fail to adapt won’t be around in 2010.
• Deals, deals, deals. I can’t open a news site without reading about all the great travel deals out there.  I’ve ranted at length about the need for better yield management in the adventure travel industry and I think we’ll be seeing a lot more companies jumping on the yield management boat this year.
• High-end operators will take a big hit, mid-tier operators will benefit. The very wealthy are still going to travel, but they might be less likely to spend $10,000 – $30,000 on a Lindblad trip.  These consumers will likely scale down a bit and look into a mid-tier trip (further boosting bookings for companies like Intrepid and GAP.)
• Service provides will need to sell on the basis of short term ROI boost. Companies like Adventure Central and TourCMS will need to make a compelling case that they offer real ROI if they want to continue to grow.  This will also be the greatest challenge for Travari – convincing customers that we will provide a real ROI in the short term.
• Advertising will move online. Advertising should pay for itself.  My personal advertising philosophy (in all economic environments!) is to NEVER spend money on ads that cannot be tracked.  That mantra will be even more important this year.  Nothing is easier to track than online advertising and smart operators will focus on advertising outlets that can deliver clear ROI.

Hopefully I’ll be on a more regular posting schedule now that I’m back in the office.  Feel free to let me know your adventure-specific predictions for 09.